车震
新西兰把澳大利亚当做世界上“最好的朋友”，澳大利亚呢？_我的网站
一 |
With pressure mounting to avert a government shutdown, heightened by culture war demands from House conservatives burned by previous brawls, the House speaker faces a difficult decision – risk a shutdown or risk the gavel.
That was 2015. But 2023 is treading a similar course.
For former House Speaker John Boehner, it was the final chapter in a lengthy standoff with House conservatives that contributed to his resignation from Congress after 25 years and almost five in the top job. For current House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, just seven months into his tenure, the outcome remains an open question.
With a looming deadline to fund the government and much left to be accomplished upon Congress’ return from recess, McCarthy and other congressional leaders expressed willingness earlier this month to pass a stop-gap measure to keep the government funded, buying lawmakers more time to work out the 12 appropriations bills they’ve been pursuing. But demands from the House Freedom Caucus have complicated the effort and put McCarthy in yet another bind from the right that analysts say could be the one to put his leadership position on the line.
“This is now the most important fight he faces as speaker and the choice between kind of the campaigning arm, the House Freedom Caucus arm, and the actual governing arm of keeping a government running,” says Casey Burgat, the director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.
McCarthy has walked a fine line with the conservatives since the speaker battle, when they took him 15 grueling rounds before granting him his win, and in turn gained the power to bring up a vote for his ouster, lowering the threshold to just a single lawmaker.
So when the House Freedom Caucus announced it would oppose a stop-gap measure to keep the government funded unless certain conservative provisions are includes – like addressing DOJ "weaponization" and ending "woke" Pentagon policies – it prompted a confrontation with McCarthy that’s been brewing and bubbling in fits and starts for months, ready to boil over.
Such legislation would lose support among House Democrats and face steep odds in the Democrat-controlled Senate, making a shutdown likely. But without the support of conservatives on a clean continuing resolution and only a few votes to spare in the GOP narrow majority, McCarthy will likely need to rely on Democrats to approve a stop-gap measure – a move sure to provoke the hard-liners in his caucus.
“This is where his choice comes in,” Burgat says. “If he takes Democratic support, which likely he'll need to do, then that opens himself up to at least a motion to vacate because it only takes one now.”
The contours of the standoff were previewed during the debate over the debt ceiling, as House conservatives demanded controversial spending cuts and policies that put McCarthy in a difficult negotiating position with Democrats and the White House. Ultimately, Democratic votes on the debt ceiling agreement outnumbered Republicans in the House in a turn of events that infuriated some members of the House Freedom Caucus.
That same small but vocal minority – numbering in the mid-30s out of 222 Republicans in the chamber, though the caucus doesn’t publicize the exact number – made their frustration known just days later, when they blocked a routine vote, sending the chamber into a week-long gridlock. At the chamber’s reunification, McCarthy told reporters they had agreed to “sit down and talk more” in future spending negotiations. And shortly after, Republican appropriators agreed to mark up the 12 spending bills well below the levels agreed to in the debt ceiling deal in what appeared to be a major concession made to the House Freedom Caucus that has colored the funding process so far.
But this time, emboldened by the shortcomings in the last fiscal battle, they may come out with a greater show of force, as McCarthy faces what political science professor Rob Mellen Jr. calls a “no win situation.”
“I think this might be the fight they're willing to go to the mat for,” says Mellen, of the University of South Florida. “That this time if he really doesn't feel like he's going to compromise with them and give them what they want, that they may be willing to just say, ‘Hey, we'll shut this down. We'll go that direction, and we'll remove you if you go to the Democrats.’”
Members of the Freedom Caucus have for months suggested that they would be willing to let the government shut down if they don’t agree with the funding package. Indeed, for the conservatives, who largely hail from safe districts, there isn’t much to lose, as analysts note that if the government shuts down and Republicans are blamed, the conservatives won’t be on the chopping block like their colleagues in swing districts.
But some have noted that for the Freedom Caucus, perhaps armed with the understanding that their demands have little chance of becoming reality, the ultimate goal may be McCarthy’s removal after all.
“It just puts McCarthy in this bind and sort of forces his hand almost to do what he did before, which is get the government funded with Democratic votes, and in so doing, they can respond by triggering a call for his removal,” says David C. Barker, professor of government and director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University. “And I think that's what they're agitating toward. That's what they want. That's kind of what they wanted from the beginning. And they've been looking for a mechanism to do it. And I think maybe all along they've planned on this being the one.”
True to form, Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas didn’t mince words about McCarthy’s dilemma with the Freedom Caucus last week, calling a motion to oust McCarthy “inevitable” if he continues to rely on Democrats.
“McCarthy’s going to have to listen to the people on the right or else he’s going to have to rely on the Democrats to pass this,” Jackson said on Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. “But I’m telling you if that happens, I mean, it’s going to be detrimental to leadership in the House if they blow off the concerns of the people like myself and Freedom Caucus and some of the other people on the right that are making reasonable demands in this process – it’s going to be a problem.”
Whether McCarthy can rely on Democrats to back a CR is one thing. But whether they’ll protect his gavel is another matter altogether.
Some dynamics suggest at least some Democrats would come to his aid, like reports of a coalition of Democrats offering McCarthy a deal during the debt ceiling fight that they would help him keep his job should he responsibly raise the debt ceiling. Another calculation for Democrats is McCarthy’s possible replacement, who likely wouldn’t align more closely with their positions, making McCarthy’s retention arguably in Democrats' best interest.
But even if McCarthy survives a motion for his ouster with the help of Democrats or calls conservatives’ bluff and his speakership isn’t ultimately threatened, analysts say his hold on the conference will remain shaky and his ability to get things done stunted.
“He can only afford to lose four. And if there's 40 that are just mad at him all the time, then they're going to be reluctant to support him even if it's on things that they want to,” Burgat says. “They've proven willing to shut down the chamber even when it's run by their own party. And so, as much as he'll defang them on this one vote, he'll need them again for any Republican priorities to be passed out of the House heading into an election year.”
It’s a dynamic that haunted Boehner for years and ultimately contributed to his early departure. And the House Freedom Caucus has only grown bigger and more brash, releasing statements and listing demands publicly, while McCarthy’s margin is just a fraction of what the former speaker’s was in 2015.
“McCarthy is closer to being one of them than Boehner ever was,” Barker says. “Boehner really was more of a traditional Chamber of Commerce-type of Republican whereas McCarthy stylistically and policy-wise for some time now has been a MAGA-friendly flame thrower right in line with them. He certainly was during the Trump years. And so, you know, it just shows their willingness to eat their own.”
Unlike McCarthy, Boehner was already on his way out, planning to resign months later, when he made the decision to step down. Even then, he noted that had he not been planning to leave, he wouldn’t have done so when talk of a motion to vacate began swirling.
“It was never about the vote. There was never any doubt about whether I could survive a vote, but I don’t want my members to have to go through this, and I certainly don’t want the institution to go through this, especially when I knew I was thinking about walking out the door anyway,” he told reporters at the time.
When asked what advice he would give to McCarthy, then his presumed successor, he urged the California Republican to protect the institution. And when questioned by another reporter about whether the next speaker would ultimately face the same fate, he earnestly replied.
。 Sophie 编译 总理Christopher Luxon表示，澳大利亚是新西兰在世界上最亲密的朋友，他不介意澳大利亚将另一个国家作为最好的朋友。
新西兰的政客们感到很困惑，因为他们发现自己卷入了一场关于澳大利亚在世界上最亲密的朋友的争论。
Advertise with us
周一，澳大利亚贸易部长Don Farrell在回答塔斯马尼亚州参议员Claire Chandler的问题后，这个话题被搅得一团乱。Chandler声称，美国是澳大利亚“最值得信赖的国际伙伴”。
二 | “我不确定美国是否是我们最信任的盟友。”Farrell参议员在参议院说。 “在整个历史上，我会说是新西兰。我认为我们最亲密的国际盟友是新西兰。” 在新西兰，人们的反应要么是对被提名感到高兴，要么是对这场辩论感到困惑。 外交部长Winston Peters在1月份与国防部长联合访问澳大利亚后，声称新西兰成为了澳大利亚政府优先考虑的国家。 “Judith Collins和我本人与我们在墨尔本的同行的会晤，对我们两国的关系产生了爆炸性的影响。”他笑着说，“这是毫无疑问的。我们正在取得一些非常快速的进展。” Collins说，澳大利亚是新西兰最好的朋友，“当然，已经很多年了。” 当被问及新西兰最好的朋友是谁时，Luxon毫不犹豫地回答说“是澳大利亚”，并希望两国的友谊能够更加牢固。 “我们希望加强与澳大利亚的交往。我们希望看到在安全、国防和情报方面有更多的合作。” “我们当然希望成为太平洋地区的好伙伴。” “重要的是，我们认为仍然有机会扩大和发展单一经济市场。” Luxon表示，如果澳大利亚将美国视为最值得信赖的合作伙伴，他不会感到被轻视。 “这不会让我感到惊讶。他们有着牢固的、长期的盟友关系，而我们的盟友关系，我们唯一的盟友是澳大利亚。” 澳大利亚与新西兰和美国都有国防协议，但惠灵顿只与堪培拉结盟了。
三 | 虽然这让新西兰政客们很容易就能说出谁是最好的朋友，但澳大利亚人的选择却引发了争论。
四 | Farrell参议员的回应激怒了以其外交事务发言人Simon Birmingham为首的反对党。 “Don Farrell的行为是对美国的侮辱，他应该为此道歉。”Birmingham对Sky News说。 相关阅读： 新西兰总理宣布：这周三首访这个国家…… 下周，澳大利亚总理将来访新西兰 注：本文为编译/原创，欢迎转发分享；但严禁复制等未经授权的非法使用。违反上述声明者，本网将追究其相关法律责任。使用授权请联系[email protected]。 chineseherald.co.nz All Rights Reserved 版权所有 (责编：Sophie) 相关内容 狠! 华人富商疯狂殴妻后出走 2侄子睡梦中被活活打死! 更恐怖的是... 奥克兰海域女尸案：死者身份仍不明，警方寻求公众协助 新西兰总理确认要访华！时间就定在...... 王小龙大使接受TVNZ采访：新西兰不应将中国视作威胁 民调认为政府表现欠佳，但国家党仍被寄予厚望 开这款车的车主有福了！4月1日起路税打折！ 王毅访问新西兰，与总理和外长会面：都谈了啥？ 疫情通报：过去一周新西兰新增4666例。
Current article:http://1yfi.shaihanhuangwoshang.cyou/list_hwd2tn/dijl1px.html
Published on:01:58:19